Monday, November 16, 2015

Less people => less famine?

Very often you can see people arguing for population control as a means to decrease famine.

The main argument is very simple, less born kids will leave more food for the people on earth.

The resources on earth are limited, so the argument is difficult to debate.

However, we should still ask some questions about it.

The first questions are, of course:

  • Who knows the limit? And...
  • .. which is the limit?
But there are other questions to be asked...
  • Shall the limit be defined per region/country?
  • Once again... who decides the limit per country?
What is clear is that, in general, there are people in Europe who thinks they "know" the limit...and they are also able to identify the problem geographically. More directly, to the "3rd world".

Famine is not a big problem in Europe.
If we accept that famine is caused by over-population, then we can also draw the conclusion that Europe is not over-populated (some people argue that over-population is the root cause for the unemployment in Europe. I won't even enter that discussion today).

Hmmm,...
  • in the 14th century we had between 70-80 million inhabitants in Europe (Wikipedia).
  • the same century we had many years of famine (in France, 20% of that century is considered as famine-years [Wiki]) 
Since then, the population in Europe has multiplied with 5. 
So, clearly... the famine in Europe can not be blamed on any absolute limit of which population the earth could maintain.

  • What if somebody in another, more developed, continent had seen Europe during the 14th century? 
  • Maybe they had found some way to stop population growth in Europe?
  • Would we have better lives in Europe now? 

I am not saying that the earth can allow for infinite number of inhabitants... but I am saying that the direct relation between over-population and famine is not as simple as some people is trying to make it. Blaming the 6 million starving people in Syria on over-population (as Frank Götmark seems to be doing) is to simplify the problem.

Also, according to Wikipedia...
  • In Germany the population density is 228 (inhabitants per km2)
  • In Syria it is 115
Meanwhile, the percentage of cultivated land is 34% in Germany vs 29% in Syria.

So, theoretically, there should be more food per person in Syria than in Germany. To be provocative... 
  • Is the Germans buying food from poor countries... and by that way maintaining a too high population density? 
  • Should we forbid export of food and, in that way, make sure that, for instance, Germans do not cause famine in other countries by buying their food?

Obviously, there are other factors in play and the correlation famine <-> population density is not as direct as Frank seems to insinuate.

The fact that...
  • Europe has no famine and have a higher population density than the large part of the rest of the world... 
  • in the same time as the Europeans seems to identify the problem as being population growth in the "3rd world" 
... is a reason to be concerned.

As mentioned...obviously there is a limit for what earth can provide for. Probably this limit is not a very absolute one (improved technology will increase the production, and allow for the "absolute" limit to increase).
But, I like Hans Rosling's approach to this (which actually is the approach which is attacked by Wijkman et al) where the families will limit them selves once their living quality improves... not the other way around, where an imposed "population control" is supposed to improve the quality of life.

For Hans Rosling's take on this... see this TED-talk.


Monday, November 9, 2015

Salaries Spain vs Sweden

I many times get questions regarding the salaries in Spain vs. Sweden (in both countries).

Normally, I say that the "lowest level" in Sweden is higher than in Spain (i.e., low income jobs are higher remunerated in Sweden) while the salaries are higher in Spain on the other side of the scale.

I never actually digged into this more in detail before.

Today I saw a new report from INE (Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas) which made me look into the salaries in the two countries more in detail.

Average salary Spain: 1881 €/month
Average salary Sweden: 3355 €/month

Salaries for each percentile

How to read this graph:

  • This graph defines the salary per percentile
    • I.e., 10% of the Spaniard (orange staple) earns less than 655€ per month (and 10% of the Swedes earn less than 311 €)
    • 20% of the Spaniards earn less than 972 € (in Sweden, the max salary in the same percentile is 1117 €)



Note:

  • The Spanish number is based on "asalariados" (salary receiving persons) while the Swedish number is based on any person between 20-65 that has had any income.
  • That might explain why the salary for the lowest percentile is lower in Sweden than in Spain
    • i.e., in those 10% is also included people that had no income in the case of Sweden, while the Spanish case only includes people with a salary.


Another, maybe easier way, to do this comparison would be to see in which percentile you belong with a certain salary. (Below)



How to read this graph:

This graph shows the percentile based on certain salary (based on available data, I have used the Spanish salaries for the different percentiles above).

  • While 10% of the Spaniards have a salary below 655€, 13% of the Swedes has a salary below that limit.
    • As mentioned below, this might be due to the fact that the Swedish statistics also include persons with no income.
  • Interesting to see is how 60% of the Spaniards have a salary below 1837€ (while only 32% of the Swedes have a salary below that limit.
  • 10% of the Spaniards have a salary above 3354€ while 24% of the Swedes earn more than so.

Note:It would be interesting to do the same study based on Stcokholm vs Madrid (and, maybe, also based on activities or age-ranges.... but that is for another day)




Sources:

SVT
INE
Medlingsinstitutet